Undergrad Research Experiences: The Case of MET 431 (Applications in Climatology)

NIU’s Meteorology Program strives to develop valuable student “preprofessional” experiences through student participation in a variety of activities, including: faculty research projects through National Science Foundation grants and the Undergraduate Research Apprenticeship Program, forecasting for the campus student newspaper and television station, operating the DeKalb-area National Weather Service Cooperative Weather Station, serving the community as severe weather watchers, conducting weather awareness seminars in local schools, and through internship experiences with the NWS and various weather-sensitive organizations in northern Illinois.

One of the unique “preprofessional” experiences that Meteorology Program students can take advantage of during their tenure at NIU is the annual “Applications in Climatology” course taught by NIU Presidential Teaching Professor Dr. David Changnon. “Applications in Climatology” (MET 431) is a senior capstone course where students work in groups of two to four on applied climate research projects for regional decision makers. Real issues from both the private and public sectors are addressed by student/faculty teams to produce tangible results for the sponsoring organization. Dr. Changnon has published two articles that highlight the uniqueness of this course: "Design and Test of a "Hands-On" Applied Climate Course in an Undergraduate Meteorology Program" (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 79, pages 79-84) and "Improving Outreach in Atmospheric Sciences: Assessment of Users of Climate Products" (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 85, pages 601-606). In addition, a number of projects completed by MET 431 students have appeared in top international research journals over the last ten years. Undergraduate research experiences, like those enabled through courses like MET 431, are a hallmark of the NIU Meteorology Program. Skills learned during these experiences empower our students, helping them gain a “leg up” in the job market.

This past fall, 16 students (10 undergraduate meteorology majors and 6 geography graduate students) participated on five applied climate research projects. The teams worked with external decision makers from weather-sensitive sectors that included utilities, agri-business, transportation, risk management. On December 4, 2009, the five groups presented their research findings to a broad audience that included other NIU students, NIU MET faculty, climate scientists, and weather-sensitive decision makers. Below is a brief description of this year’s projects. If you have any questions regarding these projects feel free to contact David Changnon (MET student advisor and teacher for MET 431/531) at dchangnon@niu.edu or by phone at (815) 753-6835.

Company Sponsor: ABF Freight Systems, Inc.
Student Team: Daniel Bocklund, Jason Foster, and Charles Richie II
Title of Project: Winter precipitation event impacts on a line haul transportation service center.

Abstract: In response to a request from the regional branch manager of a line haul ground transportation center owned by ABF, Inc., an investigation into Midwestern regional winter weather synoptic conditions was initiated. This was done in order to effectively inform the client of synoptic conditions which have negative impacts on the ground transportation industry in hi area of responsibility, and also to develop a more timely decision making paradigm. Using surface climate data from first order meteorological reporting stations in the area of interest, as well as dates provided by the client on which cancellations occurred, several synoptic patterns were revealed. The storms most often causing these cancellations contained snow and freezing rain, two of the client’s main concerns.

Two synoptic patterns, those involving Colorado Lows and occasionally an Alberta Clipper, created hazardous winter weather conditions that impacted one or more line hauls. Trips to South Bend, IN, were more frequently impacted because lake-effect snowfall created further limitations on driving conditions in Northwest Indiana. This synoptic setup reveals the need for the ability to make rapid decisions based on the nature of the storms, and was used to develop a better understanding of conditions preceding the events for the client. This allowed the facilitation of the decision making tools needed by the client on a timelier basis, and helped address the client’s concerns and needs stated in his initial request.

Company Sponsor: Chesapeake Energy Corporation
Student Team: Ryan Oates, Nick Vercellotti, and Tom Walsh
Title of Project: Determining the temporal relationship of sudden stratospheric warming events to the occurrence of cold weather outbreaks in Chicago, Illinois.

Abstract: Predicting cold weather outbreaks around major metropolitan areas is of utmost importance to many different sectors of our economy. In an attempt to better understand when these outbreaks occur, the temporal relationship between near record cold weather in Chicago and sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events in the polar vortex was investigated. A time series analysis of SSW data and temperature records from Chicago O’Hare Airport dating back to 1979 was conducted to identify SSW events and determine if and when Chicago was impacted by mean daily temperature anomalies of a 5-day average of -10°F or greater. A relationship between SSW events and cold air outbreaks was found for 40% of all Chicago cold air outbreaks. There were 93 cold events identified as opposed to only 67 SSW events. Only 25% of the time there was no cold event related to a SSW event. Most of the SSW events occurred in late winter (January – March), a total of 57, as opposed to only 16 in early winter. While a direct connection cannot be made over lag time, certain connections can be made to frequency of SSW events over a given period of year. Demonstrating the relationship between SSW and cold air outbreaks in Chicago should assist operational meteorologists in predicting future cold outbreaks.

Company Sponsor: Hintzsche Fertilizer, Inc.
Student Team: Robert Clavey and Tyler McDowall
Title of Project: Developing a climatological guidebook for a north-central Illinois agri-business

Abstract: This study analyzed climate data for DeKalb, IL, in order to provide Hintzsche Fertilizer information with which to supplement their agronomic consulting services for clients across northern Illinois. The focus of this study was to analyze growing degree units, precipitation, freeze date, and corn yield data in order to develop a climatological guidebook. Relationships between annual corn yield anomalies and seasonal growing degree units and precipitation totals were weak suggesting that a stronger relationship might exist for climate factors at shorter temporal scales (e.g., month or week). A further emphasis was placed on the climate anomalies associated with the 2009 growing season in northern Illinois in the form of a case study. Three weather-related aspects of the growing season, a wet planting period, an unusually cool summer, and wet harvest period were examined and their impacts on the corn crop yields discussed.

Company Sponsor: T-Storm Weather
Student Team: Dan Hansen, Joe Larsen, Kyle McAdams, and Kelly Rose Ortega
Title of Project: Correlating El Niño sea surface temperature anomalies with Midwest U.S. growing season temperature and precipitation anomalies.

Abstract: Temperature and precipitation anomalies can affect the development and potential yields of crops in the Midwest United States. T-Storm Weather is a company that provides weather forecasts to users in the agricultural community. Because monthly and seasonal climate anomalies and related long-range climate outlooks are so important to crop development, it is thought that the signature of large scale climate phenomena can be used to help develop these forecasts. El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of these phenomena and involves sea surface temperatures (SST) in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This study related winter ENSO region 3.4 SST anomalies to monthly climate division temperature and precipitation anomalies in the Midwest United States during the growing season (April-September) in an attempt to provide a growing season forecasting tool useful to this company and its agricultural users. Findings of the study show that little correlation exists between precipitation anomalies and SST anomalies for the studied months. However, relatively strong positive correlations exist between temperature anomalies and SST anomalies for the months of July, August, and September. Contingency table analysis showed that relationships vary across months and climate divisions.

Company Sponsor: Xcel Energy
Student Team: James Ball, Yi-Yin Chang, Rick DiMaio, and Andy King
Title of Project: Wind tunnel failure: An examination of high wind events on the Cedar Creek, Colorado wind farm.

Abstract: High wind events (>59 mph) can be detrimental to wind energy production in the High Plains region. This paper advances the methodology for identifying meteorological conditions that cause high winds. Data from the Cedar Creek wind farm is used for identification of four dates, which experienced turbine failures and six dates that approached failure. In addition, six high wind events in the Boulder region were analyzed to determine possible influences of Chinook winds on turbine failure at Cedar Creek. Results reveal that slowly, progressive mid-latitude cyclones over the western High Plains and the presence of moderately strong anti-cyclones west of the continental divide contribute to a majority of wind turbine failures. Decision trees were developed and tested as thoroughly as possible as the limited data of high wind events allow. Further analysis of surface and upper air data may prove beneficial in predicting high winds in real-time scenarios.