Career Day 2008 a Huge Success!

On Friday, November 21st, the NIU Department of Geography held its annual "Career Day", an experience that connects the Department's current students with alumni. During this much-anticipated event, alumni make their way back to DeKalb in order to share their career development experiences with students, recruit candidates for positions or internships, and reconnect with friends and colleagues. The Career Day activities started with introductions by Dr. Harold Kafer (Deputy Provost), Dr. Chris McCord (Dean of LA&S), and Dr. Andrew Krmenec (Geography Chair), followed by Career Break-out Sessions where alumni were able to connect with students in specific subdisciplines, including meteorology.

NIU Staff Meteorologist, Gilbert Sebenste, discusses upcoming internship opportunities with NIU Weather during the Meteorology Break-out Session.

The following meteorology alumni provided valuable feedback and discussions (listed by graduating class):

Mr. Bill Wilson (1979) - National Weather Service (Romeoville, IL)
Mr. Mark Carroll (1984) - Murray & Trettel (forecasting firm)
Mr. Gilbert Sebenste (1994) - NIU Weather
Mr. Mike Ritsche (BS in 1997; MS in 2001) - Argonne National Lab
Mr. Mark Russo (1998) - Chesapeake Energy
Mr. Sam Shea (2005) - National Weather Service (Anchorage, AK)
Mrs. Cindy Dettmer-Shea (2005) - Meteorologist with State of Alaska
Ms. Joi Kwiatkowski (2006) - URS (international environmental firm)
Mr. Alan Black (BS in 2006; MS in 2008) - Midwestern Reg. Climate Cen.
Mr. Dustin Oltman (BS in 2006; MS in 2008) - AON Reinsurance
Mr. Dan Heidel (2007) - ENSCO (forecasting firm for United Airlines)

Thank you to all the Meteorology Program alumni who visited and shared their wealth of knowledge about classes, internships, jobs, and the state of our profession. We all look forward to Career Day 2009!

NIU Research: Nighttime Tornadoes are Worst Nightmare

The following is a reproduced AMS-NIU joint press release featuring research by the Meteorology Program's Dr. Walker Ashley, as well as the Department of Geography's Dr. Andrew Krmenec and Mr. Rick Schwantes.

NIU researchers say twisters occurring from midnight to dawn are 2.5 times more likely to kill

DeKalb, Ill. — A new study by Northern Illinois University scientists underscores the danger of nighttime tornadoes and suggests that warning systems that have led to overall declines in tornado death rates might not be adequate for overnight events, which occur most frequently in the nation’s mid-South region.

Over the past century, the tornado death rate has declined, in large part because of sophisticated forecasting technology and warning systems. But the researchers found that the nighttime tornado death rate over the past century has not shared the same pace of decline as the rate for daytime tornadoes.

“The proportion of nocturnal fatalities and killer tornado events has increased during the last half century,” said lead author Walker Ashley, an NIU meteorologist and professor of geography. “Unfortunately, this nocturnal fatality rate appears to be a major factor for the stalled decline in national tornado-fatality tallies during the past few decades.”

Ashley, NIU Geography Chair Andrew Krmenec and Research Associate Rick Schwantes published their study in the October issue of the American Meteorological Society’s journal, “Weather and Forecasting.”

The study found that from 1950 to 2005, 27 percent of tornadoes in the United States were nocturnal, yet 39 percent of tornado fatalities and 42 percent of killer tornado events occurred at night.

Ashley predicts that annual tornado fatalities might begin to rise. In 2007 alone, 80 tornado fatalities were recorded, with 59 of those fatalities occurring between sunset and sunrise. Nineteen of 26 killer tornadoes that year occurred at night. So far this year, 123 tornado fatalities already have been recorded—nearly double the annual average.

“The tornado death rate has bottomed out and is probably going to increase due to several factors,” Ashley said. “Because of population growth and development patterns, including urban sprawl, tornado risk to the populace has increased in recent decades. Tornadoes are impacting larger populations that are more spread out, resulting in higher tornado death tallies.”

The most dangerous window of time for a tornado, according to the study findings, is the period from midnight to sunrise. Tornadoes during this time period are 2.5 times as likely to kill as those occurring during the daytime hours.

People are more vulnerable during nighttime events because:

• Tornadoes are difficult for the public and trained spotters to see.
• People are more likely to be asleep.
• People are more likely to be in structures that are more susceptible to damage, such as single-family homes and mobile or manufactured homes as opposed to schools and large office or workplace buildings. (Nearly 61 percent of tornado fatalities in mobile homes take place at night.)
• Warning sirens are designed to mitigate hazards for people outdoors and are less effective at reaching those indoors.

“Because most people go to bed after the late evening news, they are sleeping and unaware of televised weather alerts,” Ashley said. “And warning sirens give us a false sense of security. They’re not designed for warning people who are already indoors. We're not seeing a forecasting problem but rather a communication breakdown.

“Scientists, along with emergency managers and people living in tornado-prone areas, must work together to solve this problem,” he added. “Right now, the best alert option during this overnight period is a weather radio.”

A relatively small proportion of American households own weather radios, though they are widely available, cost as little as $25 and come equipped with alarms.

As Ashley noted in previous studies, the nation's mid-South region is most vulnerable to nighttime tornadoes. In fact, while the “tornado alley” region of the Great Plains boasts the most frequent occurrence of tornadoes, most tornado fatalities occur in the mid-South region, which includes parts of Arkansas, Tennessee, Alabama and Mississippi.

Percentage of nocturnal tornadoes by state.

Among the reasons for higher vulnerability: The southeast United States has the highest percentage of mobile-home stock compared with any other region east of the Continental Divide. The NIU meteorologist said 45 percent of all fatalities during tornadoes occur in mobile homes, compared to 26 percent in permanent houses.

The new study also finds that seasonal factors also come into play. The cool and spring-transition seasons from November to April have the highest nocturnal fatality rates, despite having relatively few tornado events. Daylight hours are at a minimum during these months. Also, storms that occur before the national peak in the severe storm season, which spans May and June, are more likely to catch people off guard.

“Nocturnal tornadoes are dangerous anywhere, but the danger is enhanced in the South,” Ashley said. “There are more nocturnal events in the South than in the Great Plains. And the mobile-home density is much greater in the South as well. It’s a combination of factors.”

The American Meteorological Society is the nation’s premier scientific organization for those involved in the atmospheric and related sciences. For a copy of the paper, contact Tom Parisi (tparisi@niu.edu) or Stephanie Kenitzer (kenitzer@ametsoc.org).

Sun, Surf, and Studying ... in Hawaii!

Bethany Norris, a senior NIU meteorology major, had the incredible opportunity to spend nine weeks this past summer in Honolulu, Hawaii performing research through the prestigious NOAA Ernest F. Hollings Scholarship Program. As part of her internship, she contributed to a project entitled PRICIP, which stands for Pacific Region Integrated Climatology Information Products. The goal of this project is to understand the trends in the frequency and intensity of Pacific storms in order to predict the impacts of future storms, as well as convey this information in a format that is clear and accessible to the public.

Bethany spent the summer developing historical event anatomies, or case studies of past storms, for the project. These historical event anatomies had three main components: event overview, climatology, and impacts. Four events were chosen to research, two high tide events and two high surf events, all impacting the island of O’ahu.

Her research project included obtaining tide station and wave buoy data from the Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services and the National Data Buoy Center, along with information concerning the impacts of events from local television and newspaper web sites. In addition, since high surf in Hawaii is generated by extratropical storms traversing both hemispheres of the Pacific, surface weather charts covering the entire ocean basin were examined to determine when and where the waves were generated by these storms. She also assisted in developing a high surf event impacts chart, which is used to describe the types of hazards (e.g. washed out roads, risk of injury to surfers, lifeguard rescues) that can occur in various surf/tide scenarios.

As the only meteorologist on her research team, Bethany was able to evaluate, discuss, and write about topics such as development of extratropical cyclones and interpretation of surface and upper-air weather maps. Further, she was able to learn about ancillary, but valuable, topics such as surf forecasting, ocean wave characteristics, and coastal processes.

Bethany next to the vent on Kilauea.

This is the second summer in a row that has featured NOAA-sponsored travel for Bethany. In May 2007, she spent a week at NOAA headquarters in Silver Spring, Maryland attending the Hollings Scholarship program’s orientation. The purpose of the orientation was to familiarize the scholars with NOAA and highlight the many opportunities available for the required internship. During her visit, Bethany attended presentations from a multitude of NOAA offices and divisions, toured a variety of NOAA facilities, and attended career fairs held specifically for the Hollings Scholars.

The NOAA Hollings Scholarship is just one of the amazing funding and pre-professional research opportunities for undergraduate atmospheric science students. We recommend that all of our undergraduate students who fit the eligibility requirements submit an application to this truly remarkable program.

Graduate Student Participates in Coop at Argonne

This summer, NIU Department of Geography graduate student Jenni Prell worked among scientists in the Environmental Science Division at Argonne National Laboratory, a Department of Energy research center, under a Graduate Cooperative Education Appointment. Her main project was to assist in adjusting a climate model for biofuel research through the guidance of her supervisor Dr. V. Rao Kotamarthi. The goal of the ongoing project is to show what changes might occur in our environment if current land use practices were switched to grow crops used for different forms of biofuels. The Community Land Model (CLM) is being used to model these changes, but the version did not originally include crops as a plant-functional type (pft). Corn, wheat, and soybean were added into the model as crops that would be likely used for biofuel production, and Jenni's task was to develop a carbon allocation scheme that would distribute carbon, beginning from seed to harvest, to different parts of each plant. She was able to build on her computer programming skills to implement these changes into the model, while expanding her knowledge of crop dynamics. Jenni drew upon other models and scientific literature to help solidify the allocation scheme.

Aside from working on biofuels research, Jenni was also able to take part in various other responsibilities at Argonne. She assisted in measuring, collecting, and downloading Multispectral Radiometer (MSR) and Leaf Area Index (LAI) data at outdoor sites at Fermilab, which allowed her to get up close and personal with field instruments. Jenni also assisted meteorologist and instrument mentor Michael Ritsche in preparing new instruments for deployment to the Barrow, Alaska field site of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program. The replacement of these instruments will be the focus of Jenni's thesis work, researching data quality issues of meteorological instrument change-outs.

Jenni earned her B.S. in Meteorology from NIU in Dec. 2007 and is currently working towards her M.S. in Geography/Meteorology at NIU.

Student Participates in "Research Experiences for Undergraduates"

This past summer, NIU meteorology student Becky Belobraydich (pictured right) participated in a prestigious internship at the National Weather Center (NWC) on the University of Oklahoma campus in Norman, Oklahoma. This “active research” internship was part of the Research Experiences for Undergraduates (REU) program, which is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. The primary purpose of these internships is to provide talented undergraduates with the opportunity to experience life as a research scientist. Becky worked with her mentor, Dr. Matthew Biddle, to develop and carry out a social science-related project that examined how people, specifically university students, perceive and understand severe weather watches issued by NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center and, in turn, how they use (or neglect to use) the watch information for mitigation activities. Her research involved writing a survey, arranging for permission from various academic departments at both the University of Oklahoma and Northern Illinois University to survey their students, filling out and filing the required paperwork necessary to have her study approved, administering the surveys to students, and analyzing the resulting data.

Along with the research, Becky’s summer was filled with other opportunities to learn about the different aspects of meteorology. During the early summer, she had the chance to go storm chasing several times in the Great Plains with both her mentor and fellow interns, fulfilling a lifelong dream of hers. Throughout the summer, she and her fellow interns were also able to attend seminar talks by various weather professionals, tour the National Weather Radar Testbed, and visit both government weather offices and privately owned weather companies to discover the variety of job opportunities that exist within the field of meteorology. The work performed by the interns culminated at the end of the summer with final presentations and papers on their research and findings. Becky plans to present her work at a professional conference in the near future.

One of the beautiful storms Becky was able to chase during her REU experience.

Since 1999, NIU has placed seven undergraduates in the REU program. In 2007, NIU meteorology student Victor Gensini (currently working on a M.S. at NIU) collaborated with Dr. Harold Brooks (NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory) to examine the regional variability of thunderstorm parameters over a 42-year period. Other past NIU meteorology participants include: Heather Flachs (2004), Becca Mazur (2003), Kadi Carroll (2002), Jesse Sparks (2000), and Peggy Concannon (1999). NIU students interested in future REU opportunities are asked to contact Dr. Ashley or Dr. Changnon.

Fall 2008 Colloquium Series Announced

The fall 2008 Geography Colloquium schedule was recently released and it includes a number of talks related to the atmospheric sciences. All talks take place in Davis Hall's Room 121 on Friday's at 3-4 pm. Please feel free to join us for this exciting semester of speakers!

• September 5: "Tornadogenesis and the Nature of Tornadoes" by Dr. Paul Sirvatka (College of DuPage)
• September 12: "The Feedback between Deforestation and Climate in Amazonia" by Dr. Somnath Roy (University of Illinois- Urbana/Champaign)
• September 26: “The Microphysical and Radiative Properties of Tropical Cirrus Observed During TWP-ICE: Implications for Climate Studies" by Dr. Greg McFarquhar (University of Illinois- Urbana/Champaign)
• October 10: "Rescaling the ‘Alien’, Rescaling Personhood: Neoliberalism, Immigration, and the State" by Dr. Monica Varsanyi (City University of New York)
• October 24: "The Carbon Cycle and Climate Change" by Dr. Atul Jain (University of Illinois- Urbana/Champaign)
• November 7: "Emerging Water Quality Challenges Facing the Metropolitan Water Reclamation District of Greater Chicago: An Overview of the Issues and Associated Research" by Dr. Thomas Granato (Metropolitan Water Reclamation District of Greater Chicago)
• November 14: "Climate/Vegetation Interactions Simulated in Global Models" by Dr. Samuel Levis (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

Graduate Student Travels to Nicaragua for Hurricane Research

NIU Department of Geography graduate student, Monica Zappa, spent a majority of her summer break in Bluefields, Nicaragua, where she researched the area’s vulnerability to hurricanes. Bluefields is located on the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua, where many of the cultures, customs, and languages of the city are a unique infusion from the Caribbean islands and the western part of Nicaragua. During Monica’s six week visit, she gathered information from local officials and residents about local hurricane experiences and concerns, evacuation procedures, and perceptions regarding tropical cyclones.

Children enjoy a beautiful day in Bluefields.

While most Nicaraguans immediately associate tropical cyclones with the infamous Hurricane Mitch (a storm that caused many fatal mudslides in the north central portion of the country), Bluefieldians have been scarred by the horrific memory of Hurricane Joan, 20 years prior. Hurricane Joan made landfall in 1988 as a strong Category 3 near Bluefields, which severely damaged or destroyed 80%-90% of the buildings in the city. During Monica’s interviews and conversations with the local people, she heard many firsthand accounts of Joan (pronounced Jo-wan in the local Creole English dialect). People told their stories of how they hid in bathrooms and covered themselves with mattresses and, when the storm became so strong that the walls begin to fall, they used chairs as shields from flying debris to run to find more secure shelter. Because Bluefields is not accessible by road, evacuations out of the city are not common in the event of a hurricane. Local refuge places such as churches and schools are the best protection that the people have in the event of a major storm.

Monica’s research incorporates how past experiences, such as Hurricane Joan, have influenced or altered perceptions or behaviors toward future hurricanes. Through her research surveys, she found that despite the frightening and horrific experiences that most people had with Hurricane Joan, many would still choose to stay in their homes if another hurricane were to threaten the city. Monica found that there were two main reasons that people sited for not taking refuge in the event of a future storm: 1) many believed that their homes would be able to withstand any future events because most homes are now built of cement and masonry; 2) many are reluctant to evacuate because they are not willing to leave their belongings unattended for fear that looters would steal their hard-earned possessions during or after a storm.

While she was in Nicaragua, Monica also traveled to the Corn Islands, a six hour boat ride from Bluefields, where she found even less access to refuge shelters and resources. Although the Red Cross and Defense of Civil have attempted to formulate disaster preparation along the Atlantic coast, money and resources are in such short supply due to the struggling Nicaraguan economy that very little progress has been made since Hurricane Joan in 1988. Monica will use the information she collected over the summer for the completion of her Master’s thesis, and she plans to continue disaster research in impoverished countries of Latin America and the Caribbean. Monica’s research in Nicaragua was partially sponsored by a research grant from the NIU Center for Latino and Latin American Studies. For a more detailed account of Monica’s trip, visit her blog.