NIU "Met" attends the 13th Severe Storms and Doppler Radar Conference

Nine undergraduate students, four graduate students, NIU Staff Meteorologist Gilbert Sebenste, and Dr. Ashley attended the 13th Annual Severe Storms and Doppler Radar Conference in West Des Moines, IA on April 2nd-4th, 2009. This year's conference was held at the West Des Moines Sheraton Hotel and Convention Center and provided three days of exciting talks on all aspects of severe weather.

NIU's contingent at the conference!

NIU students highlighted their own research by presenting three separate posters, including:

• “Radar Morphology of Fatal Convective Straight-line Wind Events” by Joe Schoen (NIU) and Walker Ashley (NIU); this work illustrates preliminary results from Joe’s thesis, which is examining the storm morphology of killer tornado and nontornadic wind events over the past 10-15 years.
• “Human Vulnerability to Lightning in Georgia” by Chris Gilson (NIU), Walker Ashley (NIU), Mace Bentley (NIU), and Tony Stallins (FSU); this poster highlighted Chris’ thesis work, which examined the enhancement of physical vulnerability to lightning due to population expansion in and around Atlanta, GA. The work further discusses how the urban heat island may be augmenting lightning around the city which, in turn, increases risk to the hazard.
• “The Response of University Students to Severe Weather Watches” by Becky Belobraydich (NIU and Univ. of Oklahoma/NWC-REU Program) and Matthew Biddle (OU); this work highlighted Becky’s research from summer 2008's National Weather Center Research Experiences for Undergraduates, where she had the distinct honor to collaborate with Dr. Biddle at OU.

Congratulations to Hiroyuki Ito!

Hiroyuki Ito, who received his B.S. in Meteorology and Certificate in GIS from NIU, was recently awarded a Graduate Research Assistantship at the University of Hawaii-Manoa. This highly competitive award will fund Hiro to work at the International Pacific Research Center whose focus is on climate variation and predictability in the Asia-Pacific region, including regional aspects of global climate change.

Hiro’s hard work in the classroom as well as his internship experience is what earned this graduate research assistantship. During Hiro’s Junior and Senior years, he volunteered to take daily 7am weather observations at the National Weather Service’s Cooperative Weather Station on the NIU campus. He also applied and obtained an internship position in aviation meteorology at ENSCO, Inc. who provides United Airline Operation and Weather Support. Hiro also applied and secured an internship in the GIS and Assessment Office of Whiteside County, Illinois. While a full-time student, each week Hiro would drive 80 miles roundtrip to work at ENSCO and 120 miles roundtrip to work at Whiteside County. These internships gave Hiro a competitive background that placed him above the many other applicants at the University of Hawaii-Manoa.

Hiro is one of many of our students who have applied for and received funding to complete degrees at the M.S. or Ph.D. levels this year. We've recently received news that some of our students will be attending graduate schools (with tuition waivers and graduate assistantships) at the University of Illinois, Mississippi State University, University of Oklahoma, and Kent State. Congrats and good luck in grad school!

Learning Experiences in Broadcast Meteorology

One of the unique on-campus preprofessional partnerships the Meteorology Program benefits from is with the Department of Communication’s Northern Television Center (NTC). The NTC assists in applying the meteorology students’ knowledge of weather analysis and forecasting in a real-world television studio environment. For many years, NIU meteorology students have participated in daily student-run broadcasts that feature weather segments – what a great experience for those interested in pursuing a meteorology broadcasting career! Students have the opportunity to develop and construct their own weather presentations in front of the studio’s green screen, which is an excellent way for students to practice communicating weather phenomena to a broad audience. In addition, tapes of these broadcasts may be used to illustrate a student’s abilities to potential employers when applying for internships or jobs.

The Northern Television Center studios.

Meteorology students who study and work at the NTC utilize a variety of weather data obtained through the National Weather Service, including sophisticated data from remote sensing tools such as radars and satellites as well as advanced numerical weather prediction models. Using these data, in combination with their forecasting knowledge gathered from classes such as Synoptic Meteorology (MET 320 and 421) and Mesoscale Meteorology (MET 444), students are encouraged to formulate their own five-day forecasts similar to those forecasts found on local and national news broadcasts. The NTC broadcasts are aired daily Monday-Thursday with full news, sports, and, of course, weather coverage! The daily show is broadcast worldwide through the Department of Communication website and through MySpace, as well as on-air broadcast to the student body and local community via the Northern Television Channel. The NIU Northern Television Center and the Meteorology Program is a distinctive on-campus partnership that facilitates the development and honing of professional broadcasting skills in our students!

Current and future Meteorology Students interested in preprofessional experiences at NTC are asked to contact Carrie Cunningham, an undergraduate junior majoring in Meteorology and Journalism. Students interested in Meteorology as a major, as well as meteorology broadcasting internships with local channels in Chicago, Rockford, and the Quad Cities, are asked to contact the Meteorology Undergraduate Coordinator, Dr. Dave Changnon. Students in the Meteorology Program with an interest in broadcast meteorology should investigate completing a Minor in Journalism through the Department of Communication. Dr. Allen May, the faculty coordinator for the NTC, will work with Dr. Changnon to assist Meteorology Program students in the integration of the broadcast minor coursework into their academic program. This minor, much like the GIS certificate, assists students who are looking for internships and employment.

Undergrad Research Experiences: The Case of MET 431 (Applications in Climatology)

NIU’s Meteorology Program strives to develop valuable student “preprofessional” experiences through student participation in a variety of activities, including: faculty research projects through National Science Foundation grants and the Undergraduate Research Apprenticeship Program, forecasting for the campus student newspaper and television station, operating the DeKalb-area National Weather Service Cooperative Weather Station, serving the community as severe weather watchers, conducting weather awareness seminars in local schools, and through internship experiences with the NWS and various weather-sensitive organizations in northern Illinois.

One of the unique “preprofessional” experiences that Meteorology Program students can take advantage of during their tenure at NIU is the annual “Applications in Climatology” course taught by NIU Presidential Teaching Professor Dr. David Changnon. “Applications in Climatology” (MET 431) is a senior capstone course where students work in groups of two to four on applied climate research projects for regional decision makers. Real issues from both the private and public sectors are addressed by student/faculty teams to produce tangible results for the sponsoring organization. Dr. Changnon has published two articles that highlight the uniqueness of this course: "Design and Test of a "Hands-On" Applied Climate Course in an Undergraduate Meteorology Program" (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 79, pages 79-84) and "Improving Outreach in Atmospheric Sciences: Assessment of Users of Climate Products" (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 85, pages 601-606). In addition, a number of projects completed by MET 431 students have appeared in top international research journals over the last ten years. Undergraduate research experiences, like those enabled through courses like MET 431, are a hallmark of the NIU Meteorology Program. Skills learned during these experiences empower our students, helping them gain a “leg up” in the job market.

Below is a summary of the three research projects carried out by student groups during fall 2008’s MET 431 class:

Del Monte Foods:
The student group that included Joe Astolfi, Jonathan Kopczyk, and Matias Sich, worked with Dr. Brian Flood (entomologist) and Mr. Mike Sandstrom (meteorologist) of Del Monte Foods on a project examining the influence of various weather variables on the occurrence of the first major corn earworm (CEW) migration in north central Illinois. The group found that on average (during the 1960-2005 period) the first major CEW migration occurred on approximately August 20, however the date of the first major flight of the growing season varied from August 1 to September 16. Weather factors that were found to occur just prior to a major flight included a southerly wind and precipitation. In some cases, periods of usually warm weather preceded the first major flight. This predictive model successfully forecasted the first major flights for the years 2006-2008. Climatologically, when the first major flight occurred prior to August 20, both the number of warm nights (Tmin > 65°F) and the accumulated number of growing degree days (base of 50°F) were above average. Farmers and food production companies such as Del Monte Foods may find this research useful as they develop methods to protect vegetable crops from pests such as the CEW.

Northern Illinois University:
The student group that included Matt Chyba, Gloria Maleski, and Kevin Nasiatka, worked with Mr. Jeff Daurer (Director of Capital Budget and Planning) of Northern Illinois University on a project developing a wind speed climatology for north central Illinois. Mr. Daurer was interested in understanding the seasonal variations in wind speed both at the surface and several meters above the surface as they look to potentially expand the campus on the western fringe of DeKalb. Examination of wind speed data from Rockford and NCEP-NARR data identified that July (summer) had the lowest wind speeds. Nearly 50% of the time July wind speeds are less than 7 mph, a critical minimum wind speed for wind turbines. The chances of experiencing low wind speeds in other parts of the year are much less. The group found that the lowest wind speed period during a 24-hour period was generally at night between 6 pm and 9 am.

WGN-TV9; Chicago Tribune:
The student group that included Victor Gensini, Erik Janzon, and Zachary Rahe, worked with Tom Skilling of WGN-TV9 and the Chicago Tribune on a project examining the frequency of summer days with Tmax >90°F (i.e., “hot days”) at Chicago Midway during the 1933-2008 period. Initially the students found that the frequency of Chicago hot days had decreased dramatically from the 1930s. The frequency of warm nights (summer Tmin >70°F) was found to be increasing during the period, a signal expected in an urban heat island. Trends of summer hot days, warm nights and the diurnal range was examined at both urban and rural stations across the Midwest. Trends similar to those found at Chicago Midway were found throughout the region suggesting that a regional land-use factor (e.g., changes in agricultural practices from general farming to intensive row cropping) may be altering boundary layer atmospheric moisture levels and thus changing the summer temperature climatology. An increase in low level dew points could have an influence on the frequency and magnitude of summer heat waves as well as heavy rainstorms.

Interested? Students interested in participating in an upcoming MET 431 course should drop by Dr. Changnon’s office in Davis Hall.

Spring 2009 Colloquium Series Announced

The spring 2009 Geography Colloquium schedule was recently released and it includes a number of talks related to the atmospheric sciences. All talks take place in Davis Hall's Room 121 on Friday's at 3-4 pm. Please feel free to join us for this exciting semester of speakers!

• January 23: "How Will Species Respond to Current Climate Changes? Lessons from the Last Deglaciation." by Dr. Jack Williams (University of Wisconsin - Madison)


• February 6: "Geographic Perspective of Railroad Safety in Illinois" by Stephen C. Laffey (Illinois Commerce Commission)


• February 27: "Computer Simulation Responses to Global Change at the Alpine Treeline" by Dr. George Malanson (University of Iowa)

• March 20: "Water Resources and Environmental Issues" by Dr. Mohamed Sultan (Western Michigan University)


• April 3: "Climate-Economic Models and Uncertainties" by Dr. Donald A. Hanson (Argonne National Laboratory)


• April 10: "Woody Vegetation Change, Carbon Storage, and Climate Change Mitigation" by Dr. William Currie (University of Michigan)


• April 17: "Modeling Seasonal Spread of Soybean Rust in North America" by Dr. Scott Isard (Penn State University)


• April 24: "The Biogeography of Forest Change: Crown Fire, Insect Epidemics, and Drought in Ponderosa Pine Forests of the American Southwest" by Dr. Joy Nystrom Mast (Carthage College)

Career Day 2008 a Huge Success!

On Friday, November 21st, the NIU Department of Geography held its annual "Career Day", an experience that connects the Department's current students with alumni. During this much-anticipated event, alumni make their way back to DeKalb in order to share their career development experiences with students, recruit candidates for positions or internships, and reconnect with friends and colleagues. The Career Day activities started with introductions by Dr. Harold Kafer (Deputy Provost), Dr. Chris McCord (Dean of LA&S), and Dr. Andrew Krmenec (Geography Chair), followed by Career Break-out Sessions where alumni were able to connect with students in specific subdisciplines, including meteorology.

NIU Staff Meteorologist, Gilbert Sebenste, discusses upcoming internship opportunities with NIU Weather during the Meteorology Break-out Session.

The following meteorology alumni provided valuable feedback and discussions (listed by graduating class):

Mr. Bill Wilson (1979) - National Weather Service (Romeoville, IL)
Mr. Mark Carroll (1984) - Murray & Trettel (forecasting firm)
Mr. Gilbert Sebenste (1994) - NIU Weather
Mr. Mike Ritsche (BS in 1997; MS in 2001) - Argonne National Lab
Mr. Mark Russo (1998) - Chesapeake Energy
Mr. Sam Shea (2005) - National Weather Service (Anchorage, AK)
Mrs. Cindy Dettmer-Shea (2005) - Meteorologist with State of Alaska
Ms. Joi Kwiatkowski (2006) - URS (international environmental firm)
Mr. Alan Black (BS in 2006; MS in 2008) - Midwestern Reg. Climate Cen.
Mr. Dustin Oltman (BS in 2006; MS in 2008) - AON Reinsurance
Mr. Dan Heidel (2007) - ENSCO (forecasting firm for United Airlines)

Thank you to all the Meteorology Program alumni who visited and shared their wealth of knowledge about classes, internships, jobs, and the state of our profession. We all look forward to Career Day 2009!

NIU Research: Nighttime Tornadoes are Worst Nightmare

The following is a reproduced AMS-NIU joint press release featuring research by the Meteorology Program's Dr. Walker Ashley, as well as the Department of Geography's Dr. Andrew Krmenec and Mr. Rick Schwantes.

NIU researchers say twisters occurring from midnight to dawn are 2.5 times more likely to kill

DeKalb, Ill. — A new study by Northern Illinois University scientists underscores the danger of nighttime tornadoes and suggests that warning systems that have led to overall declines in tornado death rates might not be adequate for overnight events, which occur most frequently in the nation’s mid-South region.

Over the past century, the tornado death rate has declined, in large part because of sophisticated forecasting technology and warning systems. But the researchers found that the nighttime tornado death rate over the past century has not shared the same pace of decline as the rate for daytime tornadoes.

“The proportion of nocturnal fatalities and killer tornado events has increased during the last half century,” said lead author Walker Ashley, an NIU meteorologist and professor of geography. “Unfortunately, this nocturnal fatality rate appears to be a major factor for the stalled decline in national tornado-fatality tallies during the past few decades.”

Ashley, NIU Geography Chair Andrew Krmenec and Research Associate Rick Schwantes published their study in the October issue of the American Meteorological Society’s journal, “Weather and Forecasting.”

The study found that from 1950 to 2005, 27 percent of tornadoes in the United States were nocturnal, yet 39 percent of tornado fatalities and 42 percent of killer tornado events occurred at night.

Ashley predicts that annual tornado fatalities might begin to rise. In 2007 alone, 80 tornado fatalities were recorded, with 59 of those fatalities occurring between sunset and sunrise. Nineteen of 26 killer tornadoes that year occurred at night. So far this year, 123 tornado fatalities already have been recorded—nearly double the annual average.

“The tornado death rate has bottomed out and is probably going to increase due to several factors,” Ashley said. “Because of population growth and development patterns, including urban sprawl, tornado risk to the populace has increased in recent decades. Tornadoes are impacting larger populations that are more spread out, resulting in higher tornado death tallies.”

The most dangerous window of time for a tornado, according to the study findings, is the period from midnight to sunrise. Tornadoes during this time period are 2.5 times as likely to kill as those occurring during the daytime hours.

People are more vulnerable during nighttime events because:

• Tornadoes are difficult for the public and trained spotters to see.
• People are more likely to be asleep.
• People are more likely to be in structures that are more susceptible to damage, such as single-family homes and mobile or manufactured homes as opposed to schools and large office or workplace buildings. (Nearly 61 percent of tornado fatalities in mobile homes take place at night.)
• Warning sirens are designed to mitigate hazards for people outdoors and are less effective at reaching those indoors.

“Because most people go to bed after the late evening news, they are sleeping and unaware of televised weather alerts,” Ashley said. “And warning sirens give us a false sense of security. They’re not designed for warning people who are already indoors. We're not seeing a forecasting problem but rather a communication breakdown.

“Scientists, along with emergency managers and people living in tornado-prone areas, must work together to solve this problem,” he added. “Right now, the best alert option during this overnight period is a weather radio.”

A relatively small proportion of American households own weather radios, though they are widely available, cost as little as $25 and come equipped with alarms.

As Ashley noted in previous studies, the nation's mid-South region is most vulnerable to nighttime tornadoes. In fact, while the “tornado alley” region of the Great Plains boasts the most frequent occurrence of tornadoes, most tornado fatalities occur in the mid-South region, which includes parts of Arkansas, Tennessee, Alabama and Mississippi.

Percentage of nocturnal tornadoes by state.

Among the reasons for higher vulnerability: The southeast United States has the highest percentage of mobile-home stock compared with any other region east of the Continental Divide. The NIU meteorologist said 45 percent of all fatalities during tornadoes occur in mobile homes, compared to 26 percent in permanent houses.

The new study also finds that seasonal factors also come into play. The cool and spring-transition seasons from November to April have the highest nocturnal fatality rates, despite having relatively few tornado events. Daylight hours are at a minimum during these months. Also, storms that occur before the national peak in the severe storm season, which spans May and June, are more likely to catch people off guard.

“Nocturnal tornadoes are dangerous anywhere, but the danger is enhanced in the South,” Ashley said. “There are more nocturnal events in the South than in the Great Plains. And the mobile-home density is much greater in the South as well. It’s a combination of factors.”

The American Meteorological Society is the nation’s premier scientific organization for those involved in the atmospheric and related sciences. For a copy of the paper, contact Tom Parisi (tparisi@niu.edu) or Stephanie Kenitzer (kenitzer@ametsoc.org).